2016 Serie A Storylines

At the start of the season I argued that the Serie A title would be returning to Turin, Sinisa Mihajlovic would not last the season at AC Milan and Inter would lift the Coppa Italia. These predictions remain on track but have looked very shaky at some points this season. Juventus have only just recovered from picking up 5 points from their first 5 games to rest 3 points behind Inter with 21 games to play. Meanwhile, Berlusconi has shown surprising patience with Mihajlovic, with Milan still looking nowhere near title contenders despite the money spent last summer.

Reveling in my success so far, here are my predictions for the rest of the 2015/2016 season. This also doubles as a review of the season so far in Serie A.

The real challengers: Napoli, Juventus, Inter
Let’s get this out of the way first: At the moment, Fiorentina sit 2nd on the table, a single point behind Inter. New manager Paulo Sousa has added a cutting edge (with the help of Josip Ilicic and Nikola Kalinic, a Blackburn Rovers flop) to a Fiorentina side known for their passing football under former boss, Vicenzo Montella. Moreover, Fiorentina have already gone away to all three title challengers and collected the second-most points (75 from 39 matches) in the 2015 calendar year. So why aren’t they included here? The feeling is that Fiorentina have peaked while their title rivals (especially Inter and Juventus) are just getting into higher gears. Squad depth is higher than in recent years but their best chance of Serie A success might hinge on an early exit from the Europa League at the hands of Harry Kane and co.

Meanwhile, as mentioned earlier, the likes of Inter and Juventus remain in the mix without ever really looking like their best. Roberto Mancini has built a strong and determined Inter side that has the character and talent to win this league- a mirror of Mancini as a player. And Allegri has finally gotten Juventus playing again. With their early season injury woes behind them and the likes of Pogba and Dybala starring, Juventus are favourites for the title, especially with an early Champions League exit on the cards (they face Bayern Munchen). Finally, Napoli. This is the best Napoli team in 25 years – reflected in the fact that they recently topped the table for the first time in 2015 years. Whisper it softly but Gonzalo Higuain, much maligned for high profile misses for both club and country in the last 18 months, has looked far and away the best player in Italy and he might just be the difference in this title race. Just like a certain Diego Maradona was 25 years ago.

The pretenders: Fiorentina, Roma
Fiorentina’s credentials have been scrutinized already. Roma, on the other hand, are a curiosity. They have made a huge mess of the most open Serie A race since Juventus’ victory in 2012. Manager Rudi Garcia is under serious pressure and it is easy to see why. Finishing behind Juventus for the past two years should already make them favourites and they added firepower to the team – Edin Dzeko, Mohammed Salah and Iago Falque. Although the latter two have had an immediate impact, Dzeko has been poor. Fans have taken to calling him “Edin Cieco”, roughly translated as “Edin the blind”. Roma desperately need their main striker to rediscover his goal-scoring form if they are going to be anywhere near the title race this season. And Garcia might just need him to save his job.

The key fixtures
Roma vs Napoli, Fiorentina vs Juventus (April 24th)
Only three games left after this round of fixtures. Where will Roma and Fiorentina be before these games begin? And after?

Juventus vs Inter (February 28th)
Probably the biggest Derby D’Italia in years. The winner of this clash should get a huge boost that they can cross the finish line first.

Inter vs Napoli (April 17th)
The 2-1 reverse fixture was a great game decided by the brilliance of Higuain. If the same happens here, you can expect Napoli to go on to win the league.

The key actors: Gonzalo Higuain, Paul Pogba, Mauro Icardi, James Pallotta
Pogba has gradually grown into his No.10 jersey. He followed the advice of a sports psychologist who suggested he add a “+1” to take it back to his previous No.6 jersey. Performances improved since then and Pogba still has the natural ability to decide football matches on his own. He now needs to prove he can decide championships as well.

Despite Inter’s position at the summit, captain and last season’s key man Mauro Icardi has not properly thrived. However, three goals in the last two games before the winter break indicates a man who might just be getting back into form. If Inter keep on winning matches 1-0, Icardi’s scoring touch could make all the difference.

James Pallotta, Roma chairman, is a man in the spotlight right now. The fortunes of Rome’s principal clubs have soured recently (something I did NOT predict) and the ultras are calling for the head of Roma’s manager, Rudi Garcia. Whether Pallotta sticks or twists could go a long way to determine Roma’s involvement in the title race.

Team of the year so far
Goalkeeper – Handanovic (Inter)
Right-back – Florenzi (Roma)
Centre-back – Koulibaly (Napoli)
Centre-back – Acerbi (Sassuolo)
Left-back – Alonso (Fiorentina)
Central Midfielder – Pjanic (Roma)
Central Midfielder – Jorginho (Napoli)
Right Midfielder – Bonaventura (AC Milan)
Left Midfielder – Insigne (Napoli)
Striker – Kalinic (Fiorentina)
Striker – Higuain (Napoli)

The storylines to watch for
Two great Italian forwards could be retiring at the end of the season. Rome’s golden boy Totti only played 3 league games before succumbing to injury and he turns 40 next year. Meanwhile, Antonio Di Natale has been unable to inspire Udinese like in previous years and might come to rue his u-turn on retiring at the end of last season.

And what next for Guiseppe Rossi? The injury-plagued forward is back fit and can’t force his way into a thriving Fiorentina team. He has been linked to a number of clubs – Sampdoria chief amongst them, and it will be interesting to see where fate next leads a player that she has frequently toyed with in the past few years.

Finally, who will play their way into Antonio Conte’s team for Euro2012? The current Azurri side is no vintage version and there are a number of players on the fringes that might just sneak in. Ricardo Saponara is thriving as a playmaker for Empoli, Daniele Baselli has been putting in some eye-catching performances for Torino and Riccardo Meggiorini has been involved in everything good about Cheivo so far. And some big name strikers, Mario Balotelli, Luca Toni, Guiseppe Rossi and Antonio Cassano, could just sneak in, especially if there is an injury to either Graziano Pelle or Eder.