7 Nollywood Predictions for 2025

As we look back on the previous year’s releases, debuts, and industry-defining moments in Nollywood, it’s time we look forward and embrace what this year might hold for Nollywood. 

Here’s what and who to keep an eye on as the year continues to take shape.

I do not come to you by chance makes its way back home to an African audience

Since its world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival TIFF  in September 2023, Ishaya Bako’s film adaption of Adaobi Tricia Nwaubani’s 2009 novel, I Do Not Come To You By Chance has enjoyed an international festival run that’s taken it from Africa International Film Festival AFRIFF to International Film Festival Rotterdam IFFR. Now losing its production year eligibility for most festivals, the film might finally return home for African audiences to watch. Based on executive producer Genevieve Nnaji’s previous relationship with Netflix, chances are it’ll be available for streaming on the platform. 

It’s Dika Ofoma’s Year

Ofoma’s latest film God’s Wife premiered at the Surreal 16 Film Festival last year and is making its way to the International Film Festival Rotterdam IFFR later at the end of the month. With his last few shorts, A Japa Tale and A Quiet Monday, Ofoma’s bold yet tender voice as a director is beginning to take ambitious strides. The sky is the limit for God’s Wife in this year’s festival circuit, and we should expect another exciting announcement from Ofoma.

The Netflix/ Amazon Prime Frenzy Subsides As Alternative and Homegrown Streaming Platforms Gain Traction

With the instability, unpredictability, saturation and difficulty of Netflix and Amazon Prime in the Nigerian Film market, this year might be when filmmakers become jaded by the pressure and buzz of distributing via Netflix or Amazon Prime. Filmmakers will flock towards more strategic ways to set up their films for a wider reach and global audience. The rise of homegrown streaming platforms (Fliika, Showmax, Circuits) local film festivals and alternative release strategies offer filmmakers other ways to navigate the local and global market without resorting to these streaming platforms exclusively. 

In a bid to tackle Netflix and Amazon Prime’s instability in the market, the industry is finding ways to help itself. This year, more cinema stakeholders and tech companies will align to build platforms for viewing, archiving, cataloging and worldwide access to African cinema. 

Local Film Festivals Thrive 

In the last few years, smaller-scale, home-grown festivals like the Ibadan Indie Film Festival IIFA, Enugu Film Festival ENIFF, and Surreal16 Festival have grown in impact, participation and continental recognition. Their schedules continue to expand and so do the calibre of films that get screened. Last year, Surreal16 opened with Rungano Nyoni’s Cannes-winning On Becoming a Guinea Fowl. This year we will see film festivals continue to attract and secure more critically acclaimed African films and widen in audience capacity.

Spike in Holiday-inspired Films 

One thing Nigerians love is a tried and tested method of success. December is now recognized as prime time for theatrical releases and that alone has led to a strange competitive ground for filmmakers looking to cash in on holiday spending habits. In addition to the December battle-of-the-films, last December, we also saw an increase in Christmas-related movies, Christmas in Lagos, A Danfo Christmas, and Seasoned with Love among a slew of YouTube films. It’s safe to predict that there may be an attempt to tap into other holidays such as Easter and for a more expansive list of Christmas movies in December.

Dip in Commercial Cinema Culture 

Despite the continuous decline in purchasing power and value of the naira, cinemas in Nigeria continue to rake in millions of naira weekly in admission sales, and films continue to acquire record-breaking box office numbers. While the data and numbers peddled suggest Nigerians are spending heavily in cinemas, this year may prove more difficult for audiences to justify spending an average of 7,500 to watch a film. YouTube is finally becoming recognized as the cornerstone of the Nollywood market with releases garnering millions of views daily; audiences may finally turn their resources away from theatres and other platforms worth their money. 

The AMVCA  Dulls

With the Africa Magic Viewers Choice Awards (AMVCA) on the horizon, it’s hard to pinpoint standout films from 2024 that have captured significant attention. Save for The Legend of the Vagabond Queen of Lagos (predicting overall film, acting, directing, costume, and art direction categories),  Everybody Loves Jenifa (predicting acting, costume, and art direction categories) and perhaps Christmas in Lagos (predicting directing, art direction, costume, categories) that will inevitably find their way in a few categories, what competing films are out there? While many films were released in the past year, not many have created genuine buzz or worthy cinematic ambition to earnestly root for. If none of the widely acclaimed African films, such as On Becoming a Guinea Fowl, Dahomey, and Hanami, make it to the AMVCA lineup, this year’s ceremony could turn out to be rather underwhelming. 

Kikachi Memeh is a Vancouver-based Nigerian writer, journalist, and multidisciplinary producer documenting the vibrant tapestry of Nigerian cinema. Her journalistic work, which focuses on Black and African arts and culture is featured in publications such as Africa is A Country, African Studies Review, The Republic Journal, Brittle Paper, AMAKA Studio, Vancouver Magazine, and Random Photography Journal.