Bayern München – Winners of the 2016 Champions League

Who will win the Champions League?
So I have tried to answer this question by mentally simulating the entire Champions league campaign.

Notes
The basis of this exercise is to see who will win the tournament, based on my judgment of the likely group qualifiers are the chance outcomes of the knockout draws.

For the knockout rounds, I put the group winners in one pot and the runners-up in another pot. No team can play another from their country. Then I randomise. Group Winners play away first. For subsequent rounds, I randomise completely. All randomisations are done with a random number generator.

Naturally, this process is a mix of chance and my judgment but as such, reflects the nature of knockout football – you can’t totally control who you get.

First of all, this is a group phase breakdown of what I expect to happen.

Group A
A lopsided group with two very strong teams and two teams that have done well in the Champions League recently but do not come close on paper. Cup specialist Rafa “Facts” Benitez is now at the helm at Real Madrid and I expect him to guide them out of this group behind an impressive PSG team. Surprise tip: Malmo to pip Shakhtar for 3rd place. Veteran striker, Markus Rosenberg should have a few goals in him. Positions: 1st – PSG. 2nd – Real Madrid. 3rd Malmo. 4th – Shakhtar Donetsk

Group B
Supposedly an easy group for United and their performances in Europe in the past few years has been decent compared to their domestic form. There is the minor-subplot of Memphis Depay going back to the Philips Stadium but don’t overlook a Wolfsburg team that look well balanced – the Schurrle – Draxler – Arnorld axis behind battering ram Bast Dost should be fun to watch this season. As usual, CSKA should trouble teams in Russia. Positions: 1st – Manchester United. 2nd – Wolfsburg. 3rd – CSKA Moskva. 4th – PSV

Group C
A fascinating group notable for the presence of Turkish giants Galatasary (NOBODY would fancy a trip to Istanbul/Hell) and a first group stage appearance for a team from Kazakhstan, one of the largest countries in the world! Diego Simeone’s well-drilled Atletico team should do the bare minimum to top the group and Benfica’s turbulence behind the scenes could allow for a free-for-all for second place. Expect a few shocks along the way. Positions: 1st – Atletico Madrid. 2nd – Galatasary. 3rd – Benfica. 4th – Astana

Group D
The toughest group. Manchester City have started the season on fire, in contrast to Juventus who are suffering from the departures and enforced absences of key players. Unai Emery’s Sevilla will always be a force in Europe but the suspicion is that they are Europa League specialists. Borussia Monchengladbach are a curious case – they have lost Max Kruse but have replaced him with Josip Drmic. Positions: 1st – Manchester City. 2nd – Juventus. 3rd – Sevilla. 4th – Borussia Monchengladbach.

Group E
Perhaps the biggest intrigue in this group is how Roger Schmidt’s vertical approach will fare against a Barcelona team that still looks susceptible to breaks down the middle. Roma’s return to the Champions League last season was a mixed one – a credible draw at the Etihad Stadium was drowned out by the humiliation that was their 7-1 reversal against Bayern, a result that could easily have been worse. Bate Borisov probably have one or two good games in them but this group will be too tough for them. Positions: 1st – Barcelona. 2nd – Roma. 3rd – Bayer Leverkusen. 4th – Bate Borisov.

Group F
Bayern and Arsenal face each other again but they are both likely to be very pleased with this draw. Olympiacos caused Atletico and Juventus a scare last year but have since weakened and Dinamo Zagreb are unlikely to offer much resistance to the likes of Douglas Costa, Arjen Robben, Alexis Sanchez and Santi Carzola. Positions: 1st – Bayern Munchen. 2nd – Arsenal. 3rd – Olympiacos. 4th – Dinamo Zagreb

Group G
Chelsea should win this group comfortably. Dynamo Kiev, fresh from their Europa League run and domestic double last year, will fancy an upset while Maccabi Tel-Aviv will be happy to be back. The Porto games should provide excitement on the pitch and the Mounrinho matchup provides an off-the-pitch narrative to latch on to. This should be one of the regulation groups. Positions: 1st – Chelsea. 2nd – Porto. 3rd – Dynamo Kiev. 4th – Maccabi Tel-Aviv

Group H
A group of inexperience. Valencia, Lyon and Gent all have young teams with not much experience at this level and they will all have to juggle Champions League football with domestic commitments. This will breed inconsistency and lead to a lot of strange results. Zenit, the mainstays here, are yet to leave a significant mark in the Champions League and topping the group here might be the best route to accomplishing that. A very difficult group to call. Positions: 1st – Valencia. 2nd – Zenit. 3rd – Gent. 4th – Lyon.

Knockout rounds

Here are the teams in the pot for the Round of 16 draw:
Group winners: PSG, Manchester United, Atletico Madrid, Manchester City, Barcelona, Bayern Munchen, Chelsea, Valencia
Runner-ups: Real Madrid, Wolfsburg, Galatasary, Juventus, Roma, Arsenal, Porto, Zenit

Tie 1

  

Porto vs Manchester United
An interesting draw and one in which both teams will fancy their chances of going through. It will be a tough game but United’s advantage of playing the second leg at Old Trafford could just be the difference. The face-off between Iker Casillas and De Gea offers an interesting subplot. Prediction: United sneak through on away goals.

Tie 2
Zenit vs Chelsea
Jose Mourinho vs Andres Villas-Boas. The two men do not see eye-to-eye and AVB would love to get one over the Special One. However, AVB’s tactics are likely to play into Chelsea’s hands – Diego Costa, Pedro and Hazard will thrive behind Zenit’s defensive line. Prediction: Comfortable victory for Chelsea. They should win both legs.

Tie 3
Wolfsburg vs Barcelona
Wolfsburg will be prepared to face Barcelona – their sparring with Bayern in the Bundesliga will come in handy. By losing De Bruyne, they have lost a lot of their counter-attacking thrust but you would still expect them to try and pick Barca off on the counter. Unsuccessfully. Prediction: Barcelona. Easily. Could be a hiding.

Tie 4
Galatasary vs Valencia
A finely balanced tie. Again, Istanbul is not a nice place to go to and Valencia would want to make sure they are still in the tie when the second leg comes around. Prediction: Galatasary. By a small margin.

Tie 5
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid
The purist vs the pragmatist. Simoene will relish going up against Wenger and will set his team up to absorb pressure and hit on the break in the first leg. Arsenal are unlikely to change their style too much but I suspect that this season, they will have enough about them to pull off a minor surprise. Prediction: Arsenal. By a whisker.

Tie 6
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munchen
The juggernaut tie of the round. Madrid’s failure to top their group means that one of the tournament favourites will be going home relatively early. For Guardiola, a lot would be riding on this tie and expect him to come with his whole bag of tricks as he tries to outsmart knockout specialist Rafa “Some can’t see a priest on a mountain of sugar” Benitez. Prediction: Bayern. Guardiola HAS to win.

Tie 7
Juventus vs PSG
An interesting match-up. Paul Pogba is likely to square up against Marco Veratti. Two of the finest young midfielders around and players that could have swapped teams by the start of next season. It will be close. PSG have width and a solid spine while Juventus’ team is a lot more uncertain. However, Laurent Blanc’s team has the tendency to implode just before crunch-time and I expect this to happen again. With Blanc ushered out the exit door as a result. Prediction: Juventus. By a couple of goals.

Tie 8
Roma vs Manchester City
A re-run of last season’s group stage meeting. Also a return for Edin Dzeko, whom I expect to haunt City in this tie. However, City will just have too much firepower for Roma to handle. Prediction: Manchester City. Comfortably.

Quarterfinals
The teams: Manchester United, Chelsea, Barcelona, Galatasary, Arsenal, Bayern Munchen, Juventus, Manchester City

Tie 1
Arsenal vs Manchester United
The first all-English affair and one that is steeped in history. The game will be tight and is likely to be determined by how close each team is to the league leader at the time. Arsenal’s squad looks more balanced and better able to cope with the rigours of both and Van Gaal’s inconsistent tactics will probably condemn Manchester United to a quarterfinal exit. Prediction: Arsenal. Away goals.

Tie 2
Juventus vs Barcelona
A repeat of last season’s final. Neither team can be said to have gotten stronger since then but Barcelona will have been bolstered by the additions of Aleix Vidal and Arda Turan. They should overcome Juventus once again. Prediction: Barcelona. Will be tight though.

Tie 3
Galatasary vs Bayern Munchen
A lop-sided encounter that should see Guardiola experiment for the latter stages. Expect Muller and co to run riot over both legs. Prediction: Bayern. Easily.

Tie 4
Manchester City vs Chelsea
The second all-English affair and the most difficult to call. Mourinho’s guile could be the difference between the two sides. Prediction: Chelsea. By a whisker.

Semifinals
The teams: Arsenal, Barcelona, Bayern Munchen, Chelsea

Tie 1

  

Chelsea vs Barcelona
Mounrinho gets another chance to topple Barcelona, this time with old colleague Luis Enrique at the helm. There is likely to be as much going on off-the-pitch as on it and Mourinho throws all his toys out of the pram. The return of Pedro and Fabregas to their boyhood clubs will also be interesting. Prediction: Barcelona. Mourinho’s tactics will backfire.

Tie 2

Bayern Munchen vs Arsenal

These two just love facing each other. Arsenal can be proud to have made it this far and Bayern’s versatility should prove too much to handle. Prediction: Bayern. To win both legs.

Final
Barcelona vs Bayern Munchen
Very rarely do the two best teams make it to the Final (I guess it shows how unlikely this simulation is) and the semi-final between these two teams was a joy to watch. Bayern are arguably stronger this year and Barcelona will be going against history to be the first team to retain the title. Prediction: Bayern Munchen. Guardiola walks out with another Champions League winners’ medal.  

So there you have it. Bayern Munchen are destined to win the 2016 UEFA Champions League.

You heard it here first.