Can We Afford The “Change” We Need?

By Ayo Erinle

 Fencist (adj) – a citizen of a country with heavy interests in the political happenings of said country but donning a “que sera sera” mentality due to the inadequacies of both incumbent and opposition.

I’m clearly Fencist, not ordinarily Fencist, cut of a pessimistic cloth with regard to the Nigerian elections. I find it hard to envision a candidate not backed by the military winning; no matter how loved or wanted that candidate is.

Sheikh Gumi, a man who I studied after hearing of his progressive Islamic views famously said and I paraphrase, “it’s not about who can win the election but about who can lose and not turn the nation upside down.”

General Buhari besides the economic gatecrash of his military regime (I’ll get back to that in a bit) is tailor made for Nigeria’s current problems. Look beyond the propaganda, Buhari’s cabinet in 83 was filled with brilliant and qualified Technocrats. Those who were qualified to do the job required were appointed and all were asked to declare their assets (which they did). This also meant that apart from being brilliant, there was a degree of honesty in their dealings.

A great Nigerian leader, his commitment to Nigeria’s progress as a state should never be questioned. His quest for the presidency can be likened to two other Nigerian legends Chief Awolowo and Dr Azikiwe who continued even in old age to vie for the presidency. Sadly, as the military never backed any of them they all lost.

After being appointed Minister of Finance under Buhari government, Dr Onaolapo Soleye said they would set out to “curb the effect of a grossly mismanaged economy, galloping inflation and ensure that food and other essential commodities are readily available”. The problem is that the Buhari regime failed to understand that without actual tangible prosperity, all economic policy is calamity.

General Buhari’s economic score card during his tenure is comparable to the student whose focus on passing his exam was so great that instead of learning what was taught, decided to cheat to pass. He cheated as he was so focused on bringing inflation down, that he didn’t mind sending prosperity down the elevator with it.

It has become general knowledge that economic progress on paper without tangible prosperity in the lives of citizens is unreasonable. It’s the same cry about Nigeria becoming the largest economy on paper without tangible progress today, that was the problem with Buhari’s short regime.

Going back to what Gumi said, if Buhari loses this election, which sadly seems to be the case as the system is geared to favor incumbency it should be the end of his political career. If my preferred APC candidates, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai or Raji Fashola lost we would still stand a chance as a nation. They would both have gone back to serve in the opposition for the next four years. Time is not on Buhari’s side.

Chief Obasanjo made sure Alhaji Shagari won against favourites like Dr Azikiwe and Chief Awolowo in ’79 when they ran at similar ages to Buhari. IBB killed Abiola’s mandate. Our history is littered with such scenarios and it is fast becoming an unwritten law. I don’t think it is possible for an acting President or his anointed choice can lose an election. Obasanjo who has a penchant for anointing calamitous aspirants once said “the best man or team is not that which the electorate chooses to run the government.” This was designed to slight Chief Awolowo who was the people’s choice, but clearly wasn’t backed by the military.

At the moment, Change is needed and needed fast, but, the price to pay for said Change is too costly. It’s a price we cannot afford at this point. Revolution can only bring about that change and such revolution like the first Nigerian coup, filled with bloodshed and the increment of hate amongst our tribes, will be too expensive. For such costly change to occur its resulting effects would be too severe and it would further deter the progress we have made as a nation.

As for me and my Fencist brethren, we sit on the fence singing, que sera sera, whatever will be, will be.