Chadians will today go to the polls to elect a new president or re-elect president Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno who took over from his father, President Idriss Deby who died fighting rebels from the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT) three years ago, in what has been characterized by opposition s as an unconstitutional power grab.
The Election
The elections begin today; 6th May 2024 with a possible second round by June with provisional results due on July 7, 2024, marking the beginning of a transition to democracy by the ruling military government
The main candidate is President Déby. He rose to power within the ruling Patriotic Salvation Movement party (MPS). He is contesting under the “United Chad” coalition, alongside various other pro-government parties. Aged 39, Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno assumed office in April 2021, following the death of his father, President Idriss Deby, who was killed in a battle against insurgents. His father led Chad for over three decades until his demise.
After President Idriss Deby’s passing, the military suspended the constitution and established a Transitional Military Council to oversee the country for 18 months. Mahamat Deby was appointed as the head of the Council, effectively becoming the head of state.
Despite being one of Chad’s youngest leaders, Mahamat Déby has faced criticism from his opposition who accuse him of illegitimately seizing power. They have consistently called for his resignation, arguing that according to the constitution, the head of parliament should assume the presidency in the event of the president’s death.
Instead of stepping down, Déby extended the transition period until October 10, 2024. To bolster his legitimacy, he engaged in peace negotiations with key opposition figures in 2022 and proposed constitutional amendments through a referendum. In December 2023, Chadians voted in favor of these measures, which included the establishment of local councils for decentralization, a reduction in the presidential term limit from six to five years, a lowering of the age limit for candidacy from 40 to 35 years, and enhancing the independence of the electoral agency.
Other candidates in the election include Prime Minister Succès Masra, a former opposition leader who has been in office since January 2024. Albert Pahimi Padacke, a two-time former prime minister and past presidential candidate during the tenure of the late President Deby, will represent either the semi-opposition RNDT-Le Reveil party or the National Rally of Chadian Democrats. Alladoum Djarma Baltazar, a politician and founder of the Chadian Socialist Action Party for Renewal (ASTRE), is also vying for the presidency. Additionally, candidates include Theophile Bongoro Bebzoune, Lydie Beassemda, Mansiri Lopsekreo, Brice Mbaimon Guedmbaye, and Yacine Abdermane Sakine, a 39-year-old banker who enjoys popularity among the youth.
What To Expect
In what could be the most monitored election in Chadian history, the president is expected to win the election comfortably, though few observers expect the vote to be fair. The death of Yaya Dillo; a prominent opposition leader who was killed in the run-up to the poll, may have helped pave the way for President Deby. Experts say the elections in Chad appear to be mere formality aimed at solidifying Mahamat Déby’s grip on power. Following the killing of Dillo and the co-option of Masra, there has been insufficient time for another formidable opposition figure to emerge.
“Just the advantage of incumbency alone in this context makes this Déby’s race to lose, and that’s assuming that it occurs by Chad’s electoral laws,” Daniel Eizenga, a Chad expert at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies think-tank said.
Despite the establishment of the National Election Management Agency and Constitutional Council in January, which were part of new reforms agreed upon during peace talks with opposition members, critics argue that these agencies may lean towards the ruling party’s interests, given that some commissioners were appointed by President Deby himself.
With Deby poised to secure victory in the elections, Chad could potentially witness the continuation of decades-long authoritarian rule and economic stagnation. Eizenga predicts a future marked by a heavily imbalanced economy and pervasive corruption benefiting politically connected networks.
However, there are hopes that Prime Minister Masra, renowned for his expertise in economics, would drive investments in the education and health sectors, offering a glimpse of potential positive change for the country. Over the past decade, Chad’s economy has experienced a decline, attributed to insecurity and overreliance on oil revenue, and while oil remains the country’s primary resource, dwindling reserves are expected to lead to a sharp decline in production.
0 Comments