51 years after independence, The Gambia has finally started the long tortuous journey towards establishing a democracy, quite unexpectedly. When President Yahya Jammeh went to the polls in December 2016, never in his wildest imagination would he have thought that it would end up with him proceeding on exile to neighbouring Gabon. Jammeh has won every single election conducted in The Gambia since 1994, a country he ruled with an iron fist using a combination of “witchcraft”, religious rhetoric and political oppression. (He once performed an exorcism for a town of about 1000 people)
This is not the first time a dictator is conducting elections, losing it and then refusing to leave, both in Africa and in the wider world, but something was different this time as concerted pressure from the African Union, the European Union and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) brought to bear on Yahya Jammeh eventually convincing him to step down, paving the way for Adama Barrow the president elect to step in and hopefully move The Gambia forward as the people who voted him in hope.
It is a happy day for Gambians and the forces of democracy over the “dark” forces of dictatorship, but there will always be 2 sides to every coin and before we lovers of democracy burst out the champagne bottles to celebrate this victory, it is good we take a moment to understand the implications of the events which have transpired over the last few weeks in the tiny west African nation.
It is obvious that without external help and the very credible threat of the use of force, Jammeh would still be President of Gambia today. Despite the withdrawal of recognition by ECOWAS and the EU, he could have conceivably ruled for another 20 years as dictators are not known for putting the needs and safety of their people first in their bid to cling to power. He only quit office after a 6000 man force from the ECOWAS massed on the border with Senegal prepared to march into the country on the 19th of January if he didn’t step down. Probably remembering that it never ends well for people in his position (Think Alassane Outarra, Gadaffi, Assad) he took the self-preservating step of stepping down and proceeding on exile.
There are currently at least 10 dictators in Africa all of whom we can be sure followed events in The Gambia keenly and closely. How will these events affect their calculus?
First it is important to note that The Gambia is a sovereign nation and under Westphalian sovereignty laws, invading a sovereign country is no simple matter. The only reason the ECOWAS had legitimacy to invade was because of the constitutional crisis brought on by Yahya Jammeh refusing to step down after losing the elections. Elections which as a dictator, he could have cancelled with little repercussions, or could have rigged heavily so that he was declared as the winner and business could continue as usual.
The other 10 dictators in Africa will be sure to take note of the fact that Jammeh is only out due to elections which he himself called and which eventually led to him being practically chased out of his country. This will most likely harden their positions, many who bothered to run sham elections might be dissuaded from doing that in order to avoid going down the same road as Jammeh. Those who run elections will make sure that the results are all but assured to be in their favour.
Then there are those whom I call would be dictators, leaders who were elected democratically but who intend to treat democracy like a bus that you alight from after it has taken you to your destination, they all must now realize that it won’t be as easy as just cancelling an election, they know there will be serious repercussions and they might even be disgraced out of office, and for the average African who is always so pre-occupied with his/her legacy, this is a very credible threat.
It is important to keep up with the momentum and spirit of the Jammeh ouster and not forget the other nations in Africa still groaning under cruel dictatorships, if the events of the past 4 weeks have taught us anything it is that united and strong political pressure when coupled with credible threat of force works and this should be brought to bear on other dictators on the continent so that our remaining dictators, these last few chains dragging back development on the African continent can be removed without utterly destroying the country like Libya was.
It is ironic that it takes a country of 1.2 million people to ignite what is hopefully an African Spring, and the only people who have anything to fear are the dictators and would be dictators.