Economic Pressures Threaten Nigeria’s Digital Future 

Nigeria’s internet service providers (ISPs) are losing customers at an alarming rate as economic pressures push more users toward mobile network operators (MNOs), who offer cheaper and more flexible internet access. 

The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) revealed that active users across 127 licensed ISPs dropped to 289,369 in Q1 2025, a steep decline from the 307,946 recorded in Q3 2024.

This downturn is affecting even the biggest players. Starlink, Elon Musk’s satellite internet service, lost more than 6,000 users and was overtaken by FibreOne, which itself lost over 14,000 subscribers. Spectranet, long regarded as Nigeria’s leading ISP, shed 2,189 users within the same period.

The root of the problem lies in Nigeria’s deteriorating economy. With inflation rates consistently climbing, the naira weakening, and disposable income shrinking, households and businesses are making tough decisions. Internet access, once considered essential, is now a luxury many can no longer afford. Starlink’s tariff hike from $24.76 to $37.14 earlier this year, combined with Spectranet’s 36% average increase in March, has only worsened the strain.

In contrast, MNOs like MTN, Airtel, and Glo are experiencing growth, largely due to affordable, daily or weekly data bundles that allow users to ration their internet consumption. With smartphones as the primary device for accessing the internet in Nigeria, and SIM-based data plans that cost as little as ₦100, it’s no surprise that many users are choosing mobile internet over costly broadband.

The implications stretch far beyond mere subscriber numbers. Nigeria’s ISP sector has long been a backbone for the country’s digital infrastructure, powering everything from small and medium-sized businesses to remote workforces, online education platforms, health tech systems, e-commerce, and the creative economy. Reliable broadband connections remain essential for productivity, innovation, and competitiveness in the global digital economy. Unlike mobile data, which is typically designed for short bursts of use, ISPs offer high-bandwidth, low-latency connections that support complex operations like video conferencing, cloud computing, virtual learning environments, and data-heavy development work.

The growing exodus from fixed-line ISPs to mobile networks threatens to erode those gains. In underserved urban fringes and rural communities, where mobile broadband penetration is still weak, inconsistent, or even non-existent, ISPs have begun to fill in critical infrastructure gaps, and its collapse further marginalizes the populations that are already excluded from the country’s rapidly digitizing economy. 

Students without access to stable internet connection will fall behind in hybrid classrooms. Businesses in low-connectivity zones will miss out on digital growth. And entire communities will remain cut off from life-changing services that rely on steady internet access.

For ISPs, the current state is becoming increasingly unsustainable. Their business models are buckling under the weight of spiraling operational costs. From soaring diesel prices used to power data centres and base stations during extended blackouts, to the rising cost of importing network hardware due to naira devaluation and tariff hikes. Yet at the same time, their customer base is shrinking, unable or unwilling to pay for premium monthly plans that no longer match their purchasing power or digital habits.

This leaves ISPs caught in a dangerous squeeze: rising costs on one side, collapsing demand on the other. Without urgent, strategic recalibration such as offering tiered pricing to accommodate low-income users, bundling services with power solutions or education tools, launching flexible payment options, or developing hyperlocal connectivity models, many may be forced to scale down operations or exit the market entirely. And with them would go the infrastructure and expertise necessary to build a digitally inclusive Nigeria.

Mobile data may offer temporary relief, but it is not a comprehensive substitute for the robust infrastructure ISPs provide. If fixed broadband providers fail to evolve to meet Nigerians where they are, both financially and technologically, they risk being left behind. Not because Nigerians don’t need them, but because, in an economy defined by survival, even the internet must now compete with essentials like food, rent, and electricity.

If the ISP sector collapses, Nigeria will lose far more than access, it will lose capacity, speed, and the chance to build a truly connected future.