Ivorien Elections: President Ouattara’s Power Test?

Political tensions are on the rise in Côte d’Ivoire following the exclusion of former president Laurent Gbagbo and ex-youth minister Charles Blé Goudé from the provisional list for this year’s presidential election, set for late October by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).

The IEC stated the exclusion of Gbagbuo and Blé Goudé stemmed from their prior convictions in the 2010-2011 post-election crisis. The country was thrown into political turmoil when Gbagbo, seeking reelection against current president Alassane Ouattara, refused to concede defeat after the IEC declared Ouattara the winner. Despite international validation of the results, Gbagbo held his swearing-in ceremony after the Constitutional Council overturned the IEC’s announcement and declared himself the victor. This ignited a violent clash between Gbagbo’s supporters and Ouattara’s loyalists, and in April 2011, Gbagbo was ousted with the support of UN and French forces. He and Blé Goudé faced charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court in Hague, Netherlands but were acquitted due to insufficient evidence. Gbagbo was later handed a 20-year sentence in Côte d’Ivoire for looting the Central Bank of West African States — a conviction President Ouattara eventually pardoned. 

Gbagbo, the first major figure to declare his candidacy, held a rally last year, reaffirming his innocence and pledging to improve Ivorians’ living conditions. Blé Goudé’s party, the Youth and People’s Congress (COJEP), and the opposition Popular African Congress for the Ivorian People, have condemned the exclusions. 

Constitutionally, a 15-day appeal window began on March 22, allowing for challenges to voter removals and missing registrations. The final electoral list is set for release in June.

 The Stakes Are Higher Than Ever 

The stakes of the upcoming are higher than ever before. The sustained economic growth that Côte d’Ivoire has experienced since Alassane Ouattara, a former deputy director of the IMF who has led Ivory Coast since 2010 hangs in the balance in this coming elections. After amending the constitution to secure a controversial third term, he now appears poised for a fourth bid — a move that could prove his undoing and plunge the nation into crisis, with many citizens fearing he is paving the way to dictatorship.

Ivory Coast, a West African nation of 31 million people, stands out as a rare economic success story on a continent grappling with stagnation and soaring inflation. Clear and realistic economic policies have fueled diversification and attracted robust private investment, driving an impressive average growth rate of 8.6% over the past decade.

Emerging from the shadow of two brutal civil wars — from 2002 to 2007 and again from 2010-2011 — the country has staged a remarkable recovery. Between 2012 and 2023, the economy expanded at an average annual rate of 7%, with forecasts for 2024 and 2025 still strong at around 6.5%, according to the IMF. Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, Ivory Coast sustained growth. Inflation, which ravages much of West Africa, remains remarkably low at 3.8% in 2024 — far below the regional average of 21.6%. Though the fiscal deficit remains high, it’s gradually shrinking.

Youth unemployment, a persistent crisis across much of the continent, is a notable exception here, holding at just 5%. According to the 2024 Africa Youth Survey, Ivory Coast was the only country where a majority of young people reported it was easy to find work. GDP per capita, at $2,900, is the highest in West Africa, excluding tiny Cape Verde.

The government’s investments in infrastructure have also transformed daily life. In 2013, only 34% of Ivorians had access to electricity. Today, that figure has soared to 94%. The country is now eyeing expanded oil and gas exploration to sustain growth.

Yet, Ivory Coast’s greatest threat is political instability. Like most Francophone African presidents who hold on to power, most times till death, Ouattara at 83, holds onto power, having won a third term in an election boycotted by the opposition. With no clear successor,  there’s been speculation that he may seek a fourth term — a decision that could fracture the country’s hard-won progress. Many Ivorians fear that such a move would cement his rule and edge the country toward autocracy.

The stakes in the upcoming election couldn’t be higher. Beyond the risk of political unrest, the country’s economic power hangs in the balance. A peaceful, legitimate transition of power could secure Ivory Coast’s status as an emerging economic powerhouse in West Africa. But a disputed election — or worse, prolonged unrest — could scare off investors, halt infrastructure projects, and undo a decade of progress. The country now faces a crucial test, will Ouattara step aside for a successor or risk plunging Ivory Coast into political turmoil once again?