Nigeria’s Military Discontent is a Symptom of a Deeper Malaise 

 More details have begun to emerge about the identities of sixteen Nigerian military officers currently detained over an alleged coup plot. The arrests, which occurred in late September, followed what authorities described as a foiled attempt to overthrow the government of President Bola Tinubu.

PREMIUM TIMES alleged conspirators planned to assassinate key government figures, including President Tinubu, Vice President Kashim Shettima, Senate President Godswill Akpabio, and Speaker of the House of Representatives Tajudeen Abbas. Although the military has not denied the existence of an investigation, it has framed the process as a “routine internal procedure” aimed at maintaining discipline and professionalism.

Of the sixteen detained officers, fourteen belong to the Nigerian Army, while two are from the Navy and Air Force. The group reportedly includes a brigadier general, a colonel, four lieutenant colonels, five majors, two captains, and a lieutenant. The  Naval and Air force officers, a lieutenant commander and a squadron leader, hold ranks equivalent to a major in the Army.

Most of the Army officers are from the Infantry Corps, the combat arm of the military. One serves in the Signals Corps, responsible for communication, and another in the Ordnance Corps, which manages the maintenance and supply of weapons and ammunition. Many of the suspects are members of the 56 Regular Course of the Nigerian Defence Academy (NDA), who trained between 2004 and 2008. Six of them, four lieutenant colonels and two majors, were among the first to be arrested. The remaining officers are drawn from various NDA courses and short service batches.

Fifteen of the detained officers are from the North-central, North-east, and North-west regions, while the most junior, a lieutenant, is from the South-west.

Following the arrests, President Tinubu has reshuffled the military leadership in a move that raised speculation about a link to the coup probe. He replaced  Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, with General Olufemi Oluyede, the former Chief of Army Staff. Major General Waidi Shaibu became the new Chief of Army Staff, Air Vice Marshal Sunday Kelvin Aneke was also  appointed Chief of Air Staff, and Rear Admiral Idi Abbas became Chief of Naval Staff. Major General Emmanuel Undiendeye retained his position as Chief of Defence Intelligence. The presidency offered no explanation connecting the leadership shake-up to the alleged coup.

The alleged coup attempt points to mounting dissatisfaction within the military and wider discontent with the Tinubu administration’s economic and governance policies, which also buoyed by a broader wave of military juntas sweeping across Africa’s Sahel region, where coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad have been driven by frustration with civilian governments’ handling of security and economic crises.

Nigeria, though not yet part of that wave, shares several underlying conditions. The country faces worsening economic hardship, a declining standard of living, and widespread distrust in government institutions.

The removal of fuel subsidies in 2023 triggered a sharp rise in transportation and living costs, pushing inflation to record levels, making life unbearable for Nigerians. An additional 15% levy on imported petrol further inflames public anger. Other unpopular measures, including new taxes on digital services, imported goods, and luxury items, have deepened perceptions that government reforms favour the wealthy while burdening ordinary citizens.

Insecurity remains another source of frustration within the armed forces. Despite major funding increases, soldiers continue to face poor welfare conditions, delayed allowances, and inadequate equipment. Nigeria’s security challenges, ranging from jihadist insurgencies in the North-East to banditry in the North-west and separatist violence in the South-east, have left troops overstretched. Officers reportedly complain of long deployments with minimal support, eroding morale across the ranks.

The attempted coup, whether fully substantiated or not, highlights the fragility of Nigeria’s political and security structure. It signals that restiveness within the armed forces is no longer confined to whispers of frustration but has escalated into actions that could destabilise the state.

For the Tinubu administration, the development is a warning about the cumulative effects of unpopular policies and deepening inequality. Economic reforms meant to stabilise the economy have instead widened social and political fault lines. The government’s handling of insecurity, alongside growing public hardship, has undermined confidence in its leadership both within and outside the military.

While the swift arrests and subsequent reshuffle may have averted an immediate threat, they also expose vulnerabilities in the chain of command and the potential for dissent within key security institutions.

Nigeria’s position as West Africa’s largest democracy and leading military power means any sign of instability within its ranks carries regional implications. With coups now reshaping governance across the Sahel, Nigeria’s stability is crucial to maintaining balance in a region already on edge.

The foiled coup may have failed to achieve its aim, but it has exposed cracks within Nigeria’s armed forces and society. Unless the government confronts these issues with sincerity and reform, the discontent that produced this plot may only deepen quietly and dangerously within the ranks.