Peter Obi, Atiku Forges Fragile Coalition Ahead of 2027 Polls

Nigeria’s opposition leaders are racing to unite against President Bola Tinubu’s second-term ambitions ahead of the 2027 elections, but deep-seated rifts, legal battles, and unresolved power-sharing disputes threaten to derail their efforts.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party, PDP), Labour Party’s Peter Obi, and ex-Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai have reportedly agreed to coalesce under the lesser-known African Democratic Congress (ADC), aiming to replicate their combined 2023 vote tally, which surpassed Tinubu’s 8.7 million votes. However, skepticism abounds over whether the coalition can overcome ego clashes, regional rivalries, and party crises to mount a credible challenge. 

Coalition Talks: A Single-Term Pact and ADC Gambit

Multiple reports and people close to the negotiations confirm that Atiku and Obi discussed a joint ticket during a meeting in the UK earlier this year. Atiku, 77, allegedly proposed a single-term presidency with Obi as his vice president, pledging to hand over power after four years. While Obi has tentatively agreed, he faces pressure from loyalists wary of repeating his 2019 role as Atiku’s deputy, which ended in defeat. “They’re crossing the T’s and dotting the I’s,” said a PDP insider, noting plans to formalize the agreement in writing. 

The ADC, a minor party whose 2023 presidential candidate secured just 82,000 votes, has emerged as the coalition’s likely platform. ADC National Chairman Ralph Nwosu confirmed talks with “all critical stakeholders,” including defectors from deregistered parties, and teased a “significant announcement” this week. However, the PDP and Labour Party remain embroiled in internal crises, complicating any swift resolution. 

Obstacles to Unity: Regional Politics and Party Strife

Nigeria’s unwritten rule of rotating power between the north and south presents an obstacle to a resolution. Atiku, a northerner, risks alienating southern voters who backed Obi in 2023, while Obi’s supporters may reject his return to a vice presidential position. “Obi’s young base wants him as the face of the opposition, not a deputy,” warned CUPP Secretary Peter Ahmeh. Meanwhile, Tinubu has capitalized on opposition disarray, luring defectors to the APC and consolidating control amid economic turmoil fueled by his reforms. 

Legal battles further destabilize the opposition. The PDP and Labour Party are entangled in court fights over leadership and candidate eligibility, diverting focus from coalition-building. “They’re in court more than on the streets,” noted analyst Ibrahim Yahaya. The Labour Party faces existential threats after its Supreme Court-mandated leadership shakeup, while PDP stalwarts like Diran Odeyemi dismiss Atiku’s ambitions as “selfish,” urging him to “step back.” 

2027 Implications: A Make-or-Break Moment

Despite the hurdles, opposition leaders argue that unity is non-negotiable. “Only a coalition can unseat Tinubu,” insisted Atiku’s aide Paul Ibe. Yet history casts doubt: past mergers have collapsed, and the ADC’s low profile raises questions about its viability. Political scholar Fatima Ahmed stressed, “Without sacrificing personal ambitions, the APC’s dominance will persist, even amid public anger over inflation and insecurity.” 

President Tinubu’s camp remains confident. A ruling party insider downplayed the coalition as “recycled faces,” citing Tinubu’s grip on the southwest and alliances with northern powerbrokers. Meanwhile, Labour Party spokesman Yunusa Tanko denied knowledge of a finalized Atiku-Obi pact, underscoring the coalition’s opacity. 

The Road Ahead

As Nigeria approaches 2027, the opposition’s fate hinges on reconciling competing visions and healing internal wounds. While the proposed coalition offers a glimmer of hope, analysts caution that time is running out to build trust and mobilize voters. “This is their last chance to prove they’re serious,” said Abuja-based strategist Nze. “If they falter, Tinubu’s path to a second term becomes inevitable.” 

For now, the ADC’s promised “rescue mission” remains aspirational. But with Tinubu’s approval ratings strained by economic hardship, Nigeria’s opposition knows 2027 could be its best and perhaps final opportunity to alter the political landscape.