Sahel Countries Exit ECOWAS: What Are The Implications? 

The military-led governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger on Sunday, January 28, 2024, announced their immediate withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This decision reduces the numerical strength of West Africa’s regional organization from 15 to 12.

Formed in 1975, ECOWAS is widely regarded as West Africa’s top political and economic authority, established to promote regional integration and development. However, in recent years, the bloc has faced challenges in addressing political instability, particularly a wave of military coups, and delivering tangible benefits to citizens across member states.

Reasons Behind the Withdrawal

In their joint communiqué, the three Sahel nations cited the bloc’s insufficient support in combating insurgency and terrorism, which have devastated the region. These crises have caused significant loss of life and displaced millions, compounding the nations’ grievances over ECOWAS’ perceived ineffectiveness.

What Are The Implications Of The Exit?

Although Article 91 of the 1975 ECOWAS Treaty requires member states to provide one year’s written notice before withdrawal, the military governments’ immediate exit poses a legal and logistical challenge. If enforced, the withdrawal could strain relations between the Sahel countries and their neighbors. If confirmed in January 2025, the withdrawal could lead to significant economic, diplomatic, and security consequences. The withdrawal raises concerns about its impact on West Africa‘s fragile peace, trade, and development. ECOWAS has long been a critical framework for regional cooperation, and the Sahel trio’s departure could disrupt existing trade networks, supply chains, and economic integration efforts. 

ECOWAS member states collectively reported $277.22 billion in trade with the rest of the world in 2022, with exports amounting to $131.36 billion. Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger contributed modestly to these figures, collectively accounting for 8% of ECOWAS’ GDP. However, their departure could disrupt intra-regional trade and services, compounding the economic challenges of these already impoverished nations. For nearly 50 years, ECOWAS has enabled the free movement of people and goods, with citizens of its 15 member states using ECOWAS passports. The withdrawal of the three Sahelian states threatens to disrupt these flows. Millions of citizens from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger reside in other ECOWAS countries, and vice versa, creating uncertainty around residency statuses.

The impact on trade and economic activity is equally uncertain. The three Sahelian nations depend heavily on neighboring countries for importing essential goods such as fuel, electricity, food, and manufactured products, and for exporting minerals. These exchanges are vital to their economies and represent key revenue streams for West African coastal states. While economic ties among the AES countries have been modest, their governments have announced plans to strengthen them.

The withdrawal does not inherently end trade but could destabilize economic relations. The countries remain interconnected through various bilateral and multilateral agreements. 

On security, the military regimes have criticized ECOWAS for insufficient support against jihadist groups, a shared concern for coastal neighbors also facing militant threats. ECOWAS has played a limited role in counterterrorism, with initiatives like the G5-Sahel and Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) driven largely by external or national actors. Sahelian military cooperation, including intelligence sharing and joint operations, has been minimal and has further declined due to ECOWAS’s threat of military intervention in Niger. The three Sahelian countries are forming their joint military force, aiming to replace the G5-Sahel and reduce reliance on external support.

Despite these efforts, violence remains pervasive. The region experienced its deadliest year in 2023, with 2024 poised to surpass it. Civilian casualties remain distressingly high, with large-scale attacks in Burkina Faso and Mali highlighting the ongoing security challenges.

The withdrawal poses a setback to the regional integration ECOWAS has fostered over five decades, particularly in areas like agriculture regulation, financial crime prevention, and economic stability. Breaking away risks undermining shared regulatory frameworks, reducing cooperation, and hindering responses to critical issues like energy shortages and environmental degradation. While the Sahelian regimes view ECOWAS as overly influenced by Western powers, dividing West Africa into rival blocs undermines the pan-African unity they profess to champion.