The USA is in an election year. The world has been enraptured with the election since April last year when the first number of candidates announced their intention to run for President. The end of President Obama’s tenure helps to underline its importance. It is unlikely but possible that the primaries might go all the way to the party conventions in the summer.
The Democrats: Clinton Vs Sanders
President Barack Obama is in his last year in office so the Democratic Party will need to keep the White House and make gains in Congress after losing seats in both the House of Rep. and the Senate in the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections. The candidate the Democratic Party is backing is Hillary Clinton, ex First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State. She is the strongest Democrat running for the nomination but her popularity is plummeting. From the Benghazi controversy that has been going since 2012 to the email controversy when she was Secretary of State, Clinton has constantly been forced to defend her self and record, an obvious price to pay for all her experience and exposure. Clinton has won 11 states in the primaries so far with Louisiana her latest but her momentum has been stalled by her opponent.
Enter Bernie Sanders. The U.S. Senator from Vermont has shown that he can challenge Clinton. Ever since he announced his candidacy in April 2015, nobody took the 74-year-old seriously. From his showing in Iowa resulting to a virtual tie and New Hampshire where he won by a large margin and raising millions of dollars without any Super-PACs, he is challenging the Democratic establishment. Sanders was never a Democratic until now. He has been an Independent all through his political career. Sanders has called out Clinton on her record with the War of Afghanistan and Iraq which she supported, the Trans-Pacific Partnership which she was heavily involved in, supporting her husband’s crime bill when she was First Lady, and her relationship with Wall Street who heavily fund her campaign through Super-PACs. Despite the lack of name recognition, Sanders has gained the support of young people but is lacking support from African-Americans and Latin Americans. Sanders may have lost on Super Tuesday but he won Minnesota and Colorado alongside Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont but lost Massachusetts by a narrow margin. Sanders’ latest primaries include Maine, Kansas and Nebraska. Minnesota and Colorado are swing states that are important in the general election as they went for Obama in both 2008 and 2012. With more states coming up, can Sanders gain ground or will Clinton quench the Bern?
The Republicans: Donald Trump Vs The GOP
The Republican field started off populated by 17 candidates. Now that number has shrunk to four. The only candidate that has been talked about ever since is Donald Trump. The 69-year-old New Yorker has been a revelation in this election which has shocked the Republican establishment and political pundits alike. His popularity has grown due to the public’s dislike of the Washington establishment and Trump’s populist and politically incorrect creed. Trump does not really have any specific policies but has constantly talked about building a wall between the U.S. and Mexico with Mexico paying for it, barring all Muslims from entering the country and killing families that have relatives fighting for ISIS. His antics also include attacking his rivals and calling out George W. Bush for 9/11 and Iraq. He has been called out by many Republicans including House Speaker Paul Ryan and 2012 Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. However, this has not stopped the Donald. Trump has won 12 states so far including seven from Super Tuesday alone. With the GOP panicking about Trump getting the nomination, they have been trying new ways to stop him. The only candidate that has a chance to beat Trump is Ted Cruz. The junior U.S. Senator from Texas has won more states aside Trump. Winning in Iowa, Alaska, Oklahoma and his home state Texas, Cruz has called out Trump for supporting Democrats including Jimmy Carter, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton. However, he does not seem to have the GOP on his side with no Republican Senator backing him. The candidate the GOP seems to be backing is Marco Rubio. Rubio has only won Minnesota and is currently losing in his home state of Florida, which is a winner-take-all state. Rubio has been pushing hard on Trump. Constantly fighting back from Trump’s attacks. The last candidate is John Kasich. Kasich is yet to win a state and has a measly 25 delegates which is 76 behind Rubio. He is the only one who is not getting the fight zone and has talked about his record as Governor of Ohio and his time in the House during the 90s. Ohio is an important swing state in the general election and Kasich is favoured to win in the primary as he is relatively popular but would swing the GOP primary on its head.
15 states have already completed primaries and caucuses with 35 remaining. There seems to be a possibility of Clinton going against Trump in the general election. The suggestion is that Clinton would most likely win. Trump has the populist movement behind him alongside White Americans who support his tough stance on immigration, evangelicals who surprisingly support Trump over other GOP candidates and those who like his authenticity. Clinton would have the DNC (Democratic National Convention) on her side but she does not have the support of young people that Bernie has and Obama who gained over 60 percent of young voters in 2008 and 2012. The GOP would hate a Trump nomination especially with their lack of popularity amongst the female and ethnic minority demographics . The GOP race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio is pretty similar to the duel between Captain America, Winter Soldier and Iron Man in the Civil War trailer.
When it comes down to it, the US election comes down to a fight in different senses between The Anti-Establishment and the Establishment.