With Buhari Gone, Who Owns the North Now?

The late President Muhammadu Buhari contested and won elections, and the most important fact that spurred his victory was the grassroots loyalty.

Across two decades of running for president, the former military general became a near-mythic figure to northern Nigeria’s talakawa (masses), regularly pulling in around 12 million votes, mostly from the North, regardless of party, promises, or even performance.

Now, with his death and exit from the political stage, the question of the North’s next leader looms: who will inherit Buhari’s cult following?

The Northern political scene is now more fragmented than ever. What once moved in near-unison is now splintered into personality cults, regional blocs, elite alliances, and ideological factions. In this vacuum, five northern heavyweights are scrambling to reassemble the machinery Buhari left behind, and some subtly, others loudly. None have succeeded.

Here’s how they’re stacking up.

Atiku Abubakar

Atiku has spent the better part of two decades trying to be president, and he’s not done yet, as 2027 is on the horizon. Now, with Buhari’s exit, the former vice president is trying to position himself as the North’s next natural leader. He’s one of the few northern politicians with nationwide reach and deep political experience.

Atiku’s recent move to abandon the PDP and form a coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) signals serious intent ahead of 2027. He’s also got key endorsements. Gombe State’s former governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo, recently called him “the leader of the North.”

However, there’s a clog to Atiku’s ambition. Atiku isn’t loved as much as Buhari was. While Buhari was austere, Atiku is famously wealthy. While Buhari rode to power on a reputation for personal discipline and incorruptibility, Atiku’s name has long been dogged by corruption allegations. His elite image, private jets, Dubai homes, and big-money networks create distance from the average northern voter.

He’s picked up some of Buhari’s old support in places like Sokoto and Kebbi, but many analysts believe these gains are the result of elite negotiations rather than mass popularity. In a post-Buhari north, Atiku struggles as the leader, but more as an elder statesman than a rallying symbol.

Sanusi Lamido Sanusi

Sanusi’s return as Emir of Kano was one of 2024’s most dramatic political events. After being dethroned in 2020 for his outspoken views, his reinstatement signaled a resurgence in influence, not just in Kano, but across the North.

The former Central Bank Governor is beloved by Nigeria’s urban middle class and internationally respected for his bold opinions on corruption, poverty, and governance. But that’s the problem: Sanusi is a technocrat, not a populist. His fanbase is more on social platforms and in think tanks, not in the rural voting wards that Buhari dominated.

It’s uncertain if he has political ambitions (you can never predict a Nigerian politician); however, he has the clout and influence that can prove meaningful to any candidate he backs for the 2027 elections. He has already fallen out with the President Bola Tinubu-led government, hence, there’s no hope for that endorsement, but again, you never can tell.

Rabiu Kwankwaso

If Atiku is the establishment’s candidate, Kwankwaso is the street’s. The former Kano governor has built his own political empire through the Kwankwasiyya movement, a red-cap-wearing populist base that helped him win Kano convincingly in 2023 under the NNPP.

Kwankwaso styles himself as the true heir to Buhari’s grassroots legacy. He even claimed he would inherit the famed 12 million votes. His appeal is clear: a down-to-earth speaker, a man who walks the streets of Kano without fanfare, and a politician who’s mastered the optics of humility.

But Kwankwaso’s strength is also his weakness. He’s local champion. Outside Kano and some parts of the North West, his influence thins. Without a national coalition or broader northern alliance, he may find it difficult to scale up to Buhari-level numbers.

Nasir El-Rufai

Few northern politicians are as strategic or as polarising as El-Rufai, depending on who you ask.  The former Kaduna governor defected from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and after his expulsion from there, he’s now courting the coalition, a dramatic move that signals his ambition to remake northern politics.

But instead of chasing Buhari’s old base directly, El-Rufai has taken a different approach: urging the North to support a southern candidate like Peter Obi to “break APC’s hold on the country.” It’s less about populism and more about disruption.

El-Rufai’s real strength lies in elite influence. He still commands loyalty among bureaucrats, religious leaders, and think-tank types. But he’s also controversial. His conflicts with Christian communities in Southern Kaduna, his disdain for traditional rulers, and his combative style have made him a hard sell for rural voters.

He’s more likely to be a behind-the-scenes operator, cutting deals, funding campaigns, and playing kingmaker than a frontline populist.

Nuhu Ribadu

Currently serving as National Security Adviser to President Tinubu, Ribadu is quietly building a political brand. His role in combating insecurity in the North has given him a new profile, especially among northern voters who have grown weary of violence.

Ribadu has history on his side; he was once the poster boy for anti-corruption as EFCC chairman and even ran for president in 2011. His political rebirth under Tinubu could be setting the stage for a future run, perhaps in 2031.

But like Sanusi, Ribadu’s appeal is elite and technocratic. He hasn’t shown signs of mass popularity, and his close ties to Tinubu may alienate the anti-establishment northern crowd.

Buhari’s Crown Has No Heir, Yet

The race to inherit Buhari’s northern base is wide open. Each contender has their strengths, but none has replicated the unique mix of humility, integrity, and rural mystique that made Buhari a northern icon.

Until someone finds a way to combine populist imagery, policy credibility, and widespread northern coalition-building, Buhari’s political legacy will remain up for grabs, and the North will stay fragmented.

With 2027 around the corner, the real fight may not be about who wins the North, but about who can rebuild it.