When Bola Ahmed Tinubu was sworn in as Nigeria’s president on May 29, 2023, within minutes, he made a defining decision. He announced the end of Nigeria’s long-standing petrol subsidy. His words, “subsidy is gone,” signaled a sudden, far-reaching policy shift that affected millions of Nigerians instantly. It was not a gradual reform or a phased transition. It was a sharp break from the status quo, and its effects were felt across the entire economy instantly.
Almost three years later, Nigerians are still dealing with the consequences of that poorly executed decision. Food inflation has exceeded 40%, with a 50kg bag of rice now costing between ₦110,000 and ₦120,000, a basket of tomatoes ₦18,000, and even one pot of jollof rice costing over ₦25,000. Over 129 million Nigerians (25 million more than before the policy) now live below the poverty line, with 82%reporting household food shortages. Despite the government distributing 79% more revenue to government tiers in 2024, 62 % of Nigerians believe the subsidy savings have actually worsened their lives, with zero transparency on how the funds are being used. At the bottom line, the policy was not necessarily wrong, fuel subsidy was unsustainable and should have been removed earlier than 2023, however, the Tinubu administration failed to create a plan to cushion the effects of subsidy removal for Nigerians.
As the 2027 elections approach, it is shaping up to be a referendum on this administration’s performance. The central question is no longer just about reform, but about lived experience. Has the pain brought any meaningful gain, and is there a credible alternative path that could have produced better outcomes?
On paper, the economy shows progress, further complicating the conversation ahead of 2027. Nigeria’s GDP grew by 4.23% in late 2025, and projections suggest growth could reach about 4.3 percent in 2026. Government revenue has improved, inflation has slowed to around 15 percent, and foreign reserves have increased compared to 2023 levels. These figures suggest that some of the administration’s policies are producing results, at least from a macroeconomic perspective.
Despite these economic gains, improvements do not reflect the daily reality for most Nigerians. Poverty remains widespread, with nearly half the population living below the poverty line as of 2024. Food insecurity continues to affect millions, and the cost of living has risen sharply. The economy has also shrunk in dollar terms since 2023, reducing overall purchasing power. For many households, income has not kept pace with rising prices, making basic survival more difficult.
Amid these challenges, the government maintains that these reforms were necessary and overdue. Removing the subsidy and adjusting the exchange rate were intended to fix deep structural problems that previous administrations avoided.
In 2023, petrol cost about ₦257 per litre. In 2026, prices have risen to over ₦1,300 per litre in many cities. This increase has affected transportation, food prices, and the overall cost of living. The ripple effects are visible in markets, businesses, and households across the country, where people are forced to adjust to a much more expensive reality.
The Dangote Refinery has helped reduce the risk of fuel shortages by increasing supply, which could have made the situation even worse. However, it has not significantly lowered prices, since global oil markets still play a major role in determining local costs. This means that even with local refining capacity, Nigerians remain exposed to international price fluctuations.
Electricity remains one of the most persistent challenges facing the country, with unreliable power supply and insufficient distribution for a population of over 200 million people. The national grid has experienced repeated collapses, including several major outages in early 2026 that left large parts of the country without power. These disruptions highlight the system’s fragility.
Nigeria requires about 30,000 megawatts of electricity to meet demand, but currently generates only a fraction of that. As a result, most businesses and many households depend on generators for power. This dependence increases costs, reduces productivity, and limits economic growth, while also reinforcing inequality because only those who can afford alternative power sources can maintain consistent access to electricity.
In his campaign, Tinubu promised to address the electricity problem. He stated that Nigerians should not re-elect him if he failed to deliver improvements. As the election approaches, that statement has taken on greater significance. Many Nigerians feel that progress has been too slow, and that electricity remains as unreliable as ever.
Meanwhile, security is another major concern that continues to shape public opinion. Violence, kidnappings, and insurgent activity have intensified in several parts of the country. Thousands of people have been abducted, particularly in the North West, where kidnapping has become widespread. Entire communities have been attacked, forcing residents to flee and disrupting local economies.
In early 2026, a large-scale attack in Kwara State drew national attention. The incident showed that insecurity is spreading beyond its traditional areas, raising new fears about the reach of armed groups. These groups are also becoming more sophisticated, using better coordination and new tactics, which makes them harder to contain. Niger state was also recently attacked, with suspected terrorists bombing a bridge which resulted in at least eight deaths. Last night, gunmen attacked and robbed students in their hostels at Ekiti State University. While insecurity spreads to these relatively new areas, it is also getting worse in the parts of the country where this situation has occurred for decades. A couple of weeks ago, there were bombings in the city of Maiduguri, as well as a series of attacks on army personnel and Nigerian military bases.
These developments have raised serious questions about the government’s ability to provide security, and their seeming lack of concern and urgency on the matter at all. While officials reject some international narratives about the situation, many Nigerians face fear and uncertainty. Security remains a key issue that will likely influence voting decisions in 2027.
Given these challenges, one might expect a strong and united opposition. Instead, the opposition remains divided and uncertain. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is dealing with internal conflicts, and some of its members have openly aligned with Tinubu. This has weakened the party’s ability to act as a cohesive alternative.
A coalition has emerged under the Africa Democratic Congress (ADC), bringing together figures such as Nasir El-Rufai, Atiku Abubakar, and Peter Obi. While this alliance suggests a possible path to unity, it is still developing and lacks a clear structure. Internal differences and competing ambitions continue to limit its effectiveness.
Atiku remains a well-known political figure with a strong network, particularly in the north. However, his repeated attempts at the presidency have led some to question his appeal. Peter Obi continues to attract strong support from young and urban voters, especially those seeking change. His challenge is turning that support into a nationwide political system that can compete effectively.
The embattled Nasir El-Rufai has also entered the conversation as an opposition figure. His possible role in a coalition adds another layer of complexity, especially as different factions try to balance regional and political interests.
There is also ongoing speculation about former President Goodluck Jonathan. He is seen by some as a unifying figure who could appeal across regions and religious lines. However, he has not indicated any clear intention to run, and his involvement remains uncertain.
Rabiu Kwankwaso is another important player in the race, particularly due to his influence in Kano State. Kano, with its large population and voter register, has consistently produced one of the highest vote counts in Nigerian elections. Whichever party or candidate secures strong support there will have a significant electoral advantage in the overall race.
Nigeria’s electoral system favours candidates with a broad national reach. To win, a candidate must not only have the highest number of votes but also secure at least 25% of the votes in most states. This requirement benefits candidates with strong networks across the country.
Tinubu clearly benefits from this structure. As the incumbent, he has access to state resources, political connections, and an established network that spans multiple regions. His campaign focuses on reform efforts and visible infrastructure projects as evidence of progress.
At the same time, his weaknesses remain clear. Many Nigerians are dissatisfied with the rising cost of living, ongoing electricity problems, and the security situation. These issues continue to shape public perception of his administration.
Several factors will be considered in 2027. Religion could become more prominent, especially after the 2023 election broke the usual balance in ticket composition. Adjustments in this area could influence voter support.
Political defections are also significant. Several governors from the PDP have decamped to the APC, 31 out of the 36 Nigerian governors are currently APC members. The only governor representing the NNPP, Yusuf Abba Kabir of Kano state, also made a shocking move to the APC recently. The movement of politicians toward the ruling party strengthens Tinubu’s position and weakens the opposition. This trend could shape the electoral landscape even before voting begins.However, the ADC is making its own mark by recruiting powerful politicians including Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, and more recently, Rabiu Kwankwaso for a coalition which seeks to unseat the ruling party.
Kwankwaso’s recent move to the ADC now creates a major threat for the APC, because Kano remains a critical battleground due to its voting strength. Control of its political direction will have a major impact on the final outcome. At the same time, young voters represent an unpredictable factor. Their participation could shift results, but only if they are mobilised and united.
Looking at the current political climate , a Tinubu reelection in 2027 sounds bizarre to some, but remains very likely. This is less about widespread satisfaction and more about the structure of Nigerian politics. The opposition has yet to build the level of unity and organization needed to challenge the incumbent efficiently.
For a major upset to occur in next year’s elections, several conditions would need to align. The opposition would need a single, widely accepted candidate. There would need to be strong funding and coordination, as well as high voter turnout. A significant economic or security crisis could also shift public opinion more sharply.
Nigeria stands at a crossroads in 2027, facing complex economic, social, and political challenges. The outcome of the election will determine not just the country’s leadership, but the direction of its reforms and its ability to address persistent problems. Regardless of the result, the urgent need is for a government that can deliver meaningful improvements in daily life, ensure security, and restore public confidence in the nation’s future.
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