2027: Who Can Patch PDP’s Leaky Umbrella?

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), once Nigeria’s “umbrella” of political dominance, now stands battered by a storm of internal sabotage, unchecked rebellion, and the haunting consequences of unwise political decisions from 2015 up to 2023. 

On Wednesday, Nigeria’s former vice president and one of the party’s founding fathers, Atiku Abubakar, resigned his membership from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to join the Action Democratic Congress (ADC), the platform the coalition aims to use to defeat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 Presidential elections. This is not the first time Atiku has left the PDP. Ahead of the 2015 Presidential elections, he defected to the All Progressive Congress, hoping to secure the presidential ticket, but ended up losing to Muhammadu Buhari, who went on to rule Nigeria from 2015-2023, reminiscent of the 2015 move, according to party insiders, he’s moving to ADC with legislators across different levels of government. His exit from the PDP follows that of Akwa Ibom State Governor Ume Eno and the entire PDP structure in Delta State to the APC —a seismic loss that includes Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, ex-Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, and their political machinery, which is merely the latest tremor in a crisis that has been years in the making. This collapse stems from four interlocking failures: indiscipline in sanctioning APC-aligned members like Nyesom Wike, Peter Obi’s exit, the hemorrhage of youth support, Atiku Abubakar’s self-cannibalizing presidential obsession, and the PDP’s feeble opposition tactics against an APC government overseeing Nigeria’s steepest decline since 2015. 

Nyesom Wike’s dual role as PDP kingmaker and APC collaborator epitomizes the party’s crippling refusal to enforce discipline. Despite leading the G-5 governors’ rebellion against Atiku’s 2023 candidacy, openly campaigning for Tinubu, and accepting a ministerial role in the APC government, Wike remains a PDP member in name only. “When Atiku and co. left in 2014, Wike stayed and funded the party,” noted Kola Adeyemi, a party insider. “But Tambuwal’s ‘betrayal’ [supporting Atiku] broke him. Now, he’s repaying the PDP with sabotage.” 

Wike’s defiance has gone unpunished, emboldening others to flirt with the APC without consequence. His praise for the Delta defectors as a nod to Tinubu’s “inclusive governance” was a brazen act of disloyalty, yet the PDP’s silence reeks of weakness. “How can we demand loyalty from grassroots members when Wike dances with the APC and keeps his membership?” asked a Rivers State delegate. This indiscipline has alienated rank-and-file members, who view the party as rudderless and ripe for exploitation. 

Peter Obi’s 2022 defection to the Labour Party didn’t just cost the PDP a vice-presidential candidate; it stripped the party of its most potent connection to Nigeria’s youth. As Atiku’s running mate in 2019, Obi’s frugal persona and social media savvy drew millions of Gen Z voters to the PDP, a demographic now synonymous with the “Obidient” movement. His exit ahead of the 2023 elections, spurred by the party’s betrayal of the Southeast’s rotational claim to the presidency, left the PDP without a bridge to this critical voting bloc. 

“Obi was the PDP’s youth magnet,” admitted a former campaign strategist. “Now, those voters see us as the party of aging dynasts. Even when we criticize Tinubu’s failures, they don’t hear us.” The Labour Party’s rise in 2023, claiming 25% of the presidential vote in Lagos and Abuja, underscores this generational rift. Without Obi, the PDP’s rallies lack the viral energy that once made it a contender in the digital age. 

Atiku Abubakar’s unrelenting quest for the presidency has morphed from a unifying mission to a divisive liability. His insistence on running in 2023, against the PDP’s north-south zoning principle, reignited old wounds. The Southeast, promised the 2023 ticket after the North’s 2019 bid, watched in dismay as Atiku clinched the nomination with help from Aminu Tambuwal’s controversial last-minute withdrawal. Wike’s G-5 revolt was the immediate backlash, but the deeper damage was to the party’s credibility. 

Atiku’s recent merger talks and now coalition, a bid to position himself as a 2027 “unifier,” has further alienated governors like Oyo’s Seyi Makinde, who scoffed, “How do we rebuild with outsiders when our own house is crumbling?” Critics argue that Atiku prioritizes personal ambition over party survival, citing his refusal to mentor successors or share power. “He’s a general without an army,” quipped an APC strategist. “Even his allies defect quietly.” 

Paradoxically, the PDP’s struggle to capitalize on Nigeria’s crises under the APC has accelerated its decline. While inflation spirals, insecurity spreads, and the naira collapses, the PDP’s critiques lack the ferocity that defined the APC’s opposition playbook pre-2015. “We’re too polite,” lamented a PDP senator. “The APC called Jonathan a clueless failure daily. We’re handing Tinubu fact sheets.” 

This timidity has fueled perceptions of the PDP as a shadow opposition. Unlike the APC, which weaponized grassroots discontent into a 2015 tsunami, the PDP relies on press statements, not protests. “Where are their #EndSARS moments? Their Occupy Abuja campaigns?” asked a civil society activist. “Nigerians are angry, but the PDP isn’t channeling it.” 

The defections crystallize these failures. Okowa, Atiku’s 2023 running mate, failed to deliver his state and later defected, exposing the rot of transactional loyalties. Governor Oborevwori’s claim that Tinubu’s “inclusive governance” motivated his switch highlights the PDP’s inability to articulate a countervision. Meanwhile, Wike’s gleeful endorsement of the defection, while remaining a PDP member, highlights the party’s paralysis in enforcing discipline. 

The PDP’s survival, which now rests on leaders still in the party, hinges on drastic steps: enforcing discipline (starting with Wike’s expulsion), renewing alliances with youth movements, adopting assertive opposition tactics, and sidestepping divisive ambitions. Mergers with smaller parties, as Atiku proposed, could work, but only if framed as rebuilding Nigeria, not rehabilitating the party’s legacy.  

APC Vice Chairman Victor Giadom taunts, “The PDP is a leprous bride.” The question remains: Can this once-mighty party rediscover its voice, or will it fade into a cautionary tale of hubris and indiscipline? For Nigeria’s sake, one hopes it chooses reinvention before the last defector turns off the lights.