The African Cup of Nations 2023 has unfolded like a captivating drama, characterized by astonishing twists and unforgettable moments on the pitch. Côte d’Ivoire, the tournament host , recently became a victim of one such shocking episode, succumbing to a 4-0 defeat against Equatorial Guinea. This unexpected loss has plunged Ivory Coast into a precarious position, prompting intense speculation about their chances of qualifying for the Round of 16. Ghana, another country that capitulated against Mozambique are also on the fringe of being knocked out.
Teams that will Qualify for the Round of 16.
The qualification dynamics for the Round of 16 are straightforward but highly competitive. Following three rounds of matches, the top two teams in each of the six groups secure automatic qualification. With a total of 24 national teams assembled in Côte d’Ivoire, the race to secure one of the 12 most coveted spots intensifies. Presently, five teams have already secured their places in the next round: Cape Verde (Group B winners), Senegal (Group C winners), Equatorial Guinea (Group A winners), Nigeria (Group A runner-up), and Egypt (Group B runner-up). Seven teams are still in contention, vying for the remaining automatic positions.
The Best Loser Rule
Four teams would make it to the round of 16 on the best losers rule. The best loser rule allows 4 of the best third placed team in a 24 team tournament qualify from the group stages to the round of 16 and here is how the rules work for either of the teams that have found themselves in the 3rd spot of the group
The four best teams among those ranked third will be determined as follows:
a) The team with greater number of points obtained in all group matches;
b) The team with a better goal difference resulting from all group matches;
c) The team with the greater number of goals scored in all group matches;
And if all the teams in that position are equal on all fronts in the first 3 rules which rarely happens then
d) There will be a drawing of lots by the CAF Organising Committee to determine what teams will take the best losers spot.
As the group stage concludes, Côte d’Ivoire is finishing 3rd with 3 points in Group A and Namibia is currently ranked 3rd with 3 points in Group E, both teams are already ahead of Ghana who finished 3rd in Group B with 2 points. The last two places are currently contested by Algeria (2 points), Zambia (2 points), Ghana (2 points) and Cameroon (1 point). The other three teams all still have a game left.
What Happens To Ghana
For Ghana to secure qualification, a precise sequence of outcomes is essential. Zambia must lose to Morocco, Algeria must also lose to Tanzania, and Cameroon must not win against The Gambia. In this scenario, Zambia, Algeria, and Cameroon would all have 2 points. The focus then shifts to goal difference, where Ghana’s -1 goal difference puts them in contention. For Ghana to sneak through, either Algeria or Zambia must lose by at least a 2-goal margin, swinging the goal difference in favor of the Black Stars. As AFCON 2023 continues to unfold, the suspense builds, promising more drama and excitement in the quest to crown the next continental football champion.