2015 marked a new turn in Nigeria’s democratic history. For the first time, the incumbent president was unseated by an opposition party. But it was no ordinary opposition. In the years leading up to the 2015 elections, the prominent opposition blocs realised the strength the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) commanded and their own inability in the face of PDP’s mass strength. Impelled by this realisation, the major blocs embarked on a momentous decision that began with their dissolution and ended with the creation of a single mega-party — the All Progressives Congress (APC). The opposition that was born with that super-merger became instantly formidable, matching the political and economic strength of the PDP and eventually unseating the PDP in the 2015 elections. That was 11 years ago.
With a few months until the 2027 general election, the political landscape is worth looking at. Like in the years prior to 2015, APC has become the super-party that PDP was, dwarfing every other political party. But unlike the years prior to the 2015 elections, the opposing parties seem to be in a disarray, heavily fractioned and trapped in a cycle of self-sabotage and leadership tussle.
The Slow Death of ADC
The Supreme Court of Nigeria, on April 30, 2026, voided the Court of Appeal’s “status quo ante bellum” order in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) leadership dispute. This removed the directive that had effectively frozen the party’s structure. Prior to this, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had refused to recognise any faction. As a result, the ADC was unable to function clearly as a political platform. With the court’s decision, the balance is in favour of the David Mark-led leadership. However, the ruling was procedural, not final. The case has been returned to the Federal High Court, where the underlying leadership dispute remains unresolved. Rather than settling the crisis, the ruling has reset it, and the fallout of the political parties began almost immediately.
Shortly after the ruling, Peter Obi announced his resignation from the ADC, despite having joined the party only in December 2025. He exited alongside Rabiu Kwankwaso, with both men moving to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), citing the need for a more stable, crisis-free platform. The exits did not end there. 17 members of the House of Representatives also announced their defection to NDC on Tuesday, April 4. The lawmakers attributed their defections to leadership and legal crises in their former party. In the Senate, Godswill Akpabio confirmed Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe’s resignation from the ADC and made a pointed remark about the scale of defections. Akpabio suggested that lawmakers should announce defections in batches rather than individually, adding bluntly: “I think ADC is dead.” His comment captures the party’s growing perception problem, as an external legal dispute now fuels a broader political narrative of disorganisation and collapse.
NDC: New Party, Same Questions
Meanwhile, the NDC has quickly positioned itself as a refuge for defecting opposition figures. Its rapid rise brings its own uncertainties. Before high-profile politicians like Obi and Kwankwaso joined, the party had not featured prominently in opposition coalition efforts or national political calculations. The sudden relevance of NDC is therefore less a reflection of institutional strength and more a result of who has moved into it. As a relatively untested platform at the national level, it has yet to demonstrate internal cohesion under pressure. The issues that destabilised the ADC: leadership disputes, structural fragility, and legal vulnerability, are not unique to one party. The NDC is already dealing with internal strain.
In Kano, a leadership dispute in the state chapter prompted the NDC to reaffirm Hon. Husaini Isah Mai Riga as chairman after he accused Kwankwaso of trying to take control of the party structure following his defection. Kwankwaso’s arrival triggered tension within the state chapter, with some members questioning Mai Riga’s leadership. Mai Riga, however, resisted attempts to unseat him, insisting his mandate was legitimate and that he would not step aside without due process. The standoff drew in the national leadership, who convened a special meeting attended by Kwankwaso and other senior party figures. The meeting ended with the decision to reaffirm Mai Riga as Kano State chairman, at least for now.
That this level of tension has surfaced so quickly after high-profile defections underscores how fragile the party’s internal balance may be. This pattern also heightens the risk that the NDC may become another temporary coalition rather than a stable institution. If similar disputes emerge elsewhere, the cycle of internal conflict and defections may continue, leaving voters to navigate shifting alliances instead of clear, consistent options.
PDP’s Crisis Deepens
At the same time, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), once the dominant opposition force, faces an escalating internal crisis that goes beyond routine factional tensions. What began as a struggle for cohesion has now become a contest over legitimacy, authority, and control of the party’s structure. On Wednesday, May 6, Nyesom Wike, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, intensified the dispute by accusing rival factions of fraud. He openly challenged them to prove their legitimacy by establishing a physical national secretariat. Wike criticised a bloc linked to Oyo State governor Seyi Makinde and former minister Taminu Turaki, accusing them of disregarding court rulings and attempting to impose what he described as an illegal interim leadership structure.
The internal conundrum of the PDP is now deepened by the recent legal clearance and factional ratification of former President Goodluck Jonathan. Prior to the ruling, political discussions were rife with the speculations of Goodluck Jonathan’s imminent return to the presidential race. During a visit of a group of youths to his office at Abuja on May 8, 2026, he had stated that he would “consult widely” before he could make any declarations as to his intentions to return to the presidential race. Nevertheless, on Tuesday, May 26, the Federal High Court Abuja, affirmed that Goodluck Jonathan was eligible to contest for the office of the presidency after a restrictive action was filed against him. According to the court, Jonathan’s assumption of office in 2010 does not count as an elected tenure before the law. Since this ruling, the faction of PDP, led by Kabiru Turaki, has publicly stated that Goodluck Jonathan will be the party’s (or faction’s) flag bearer in the presidential race.
It is not hard to see that the former president appears to be unsure as to whether to fully pick up this gauntlet (considering his silence so far, and his intention to “consult”) or sit it out. As it stands, several groups have been pressuring him to accept this burden. Beneath the facade of Jonathan’s prospective flag-bearing role for Turaki’s PDP, it could well be the case that the Turaki-led PDP faction is motivated to court Jonathan’s return as leverage for legitimacy and acceptance. However, there is the looming possibility that these political gymnastics from the Turaki faction may simply come to nought, considering the fact that this faction violated a Supreme Court judgment given on April 30, 2026. According to the ruling, the PDP National Convention held in Ibadan, on the basis of which Taminu Turaki emerged as the National Chairman, was not conducted in accordance with a court order. The convention defied a Federal High Court injunction obtained by former Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido. Thus, arguably, Turaki’s faction, as it stands, has no solid legal strength to keep it in the race.
These issues do not reflect a stronger future for the PDP that hopes to unseat President Tinubu at the polls. The conflicting court decisions, competing claims to leadership, and unresolved grievances from past primaries continue to undermine cohesion. PDP remains caught between internal power struggles and the risk of further defections.
APC: Dominance Without Pressure
The All Progressives Congress (APC), as the ruling party, stands to benefit from the opposition’s fragmentation. Divided across multiple fronts by legal battles, leadership crises, and shifting alliances, the opposition presents the APC with less coordinated resistance. The lack of a strong and unified challenge reduces electoral pressure and reshapes the competitive landscape ahead of 2027. With just over six months until the presidential election, the opposition space remains unsettled. Instead of presenting a single, strong bloc, the opposition is splitting into multiple weakened parties. This splits voter support, dilutes influence, and weakens accountability. The opposition parties, consumed by internal crises, have less capacity to challenge and scrutinise the APC’s policy and governance. At this critical juncture, Nigeria’s opposition is still divided.
