The Politics of Victory

I study politics and political outcomes, but a very interesting similarity to understanding sporting outcomes is that both are seen in the context of how conditions affected the results. If a political candidate wins an election convincingly, it’s seen as less of a contest than if the result were close and some random news item or procedure negatively affected the loser. Similarly, if a team dismantles an opponent in play, it is seen as a commanding result than if, say, a referee’s performance or playing conditions meant an opponent was at a disadvantage.

Earlier in the tournament, I reflected that Nigerians were transitioning into a new era in their relationship with the national team- one that meant they could redirect and reframe the lofty expectations that can overwhelm players. The team inspired confidence and hope with each performance and each show of team spirit and camaraderie. Losing to Morocco, the hosts and the highest-ranked side on the continent, should not knock this side, but show the potential that this team can deliver on with the right support and infrastructure around it.

The team itself has also shown a new core that a future winning side can be built around. Stanley Nwabali was exceptional in the post and reminded Nigerians of why he has been designated the long-term heir to legendary Vincent Enyeama. Calvin Bassey was rock solid in the back, even with a card ruling him out of the rest of the tournament, and at times single-handedly kept the side in the game with his apt positioning and physical prowess. Nigeria sorely missed captain Wilfred Ndidi, who was suspended for the semi-final, as his presence in the midfield would have gone a long way towards strengthening the link-up play between the back and front. This would have freed Alex Iwobi, who has come of age and perhaps out of the shadow of his illustrious uncle, to play more probing passes and allowed Nigeria’s fearsome frontline to play its more natural game. Many of these players will likely be at the next tournament, and the experience of consecutive semifinals will only help in the future.

The first phase of navigating the politics of victory will focus on the team’s internal structure. A lot has already been written about the federation’s limitations—from its lack of accountability to the challenges around bonuses and payment structures—but part of it also stems from a lack of investment in future generations. Both 2025 finalists are beneficiaries of concerted efforts invested in cadet championships, with both having won the last two African U-17 Cup of Nations, and Morocco even winning the U-20 World Cup. As AFCON prepares to move to a quadriennial tournament, long-term investment will become better rewarded.

The next phase might be beyond Nigeria and more to do with the tournament’s organisation itself. Two major factors have been put forward for the team’s laboured performance against Morocco. First, the logistics involved in where matches were situated. Nigeria played knockout matches in Fez, Marrakesh, and Rabat—with the Bronze match in Casablanca—as fatigue from travel accumulated. Morocco will play all its AFCON 2025 matches in Rabat, with small differences playing a key role in shaping outcomes. Comments have also been made that the other finalist, Senegal, benefited from a stable base in Tangier in the knockout phase. As AFCON expands, with three host nations in 2027, such logistic arrangements will be even more prevalent and require better structures to manage player performance.

Second, and perhaps most discouragingly, is the referee performance. CAF’s referee assignments have had to navigate the very present geopolitical divisions on the continent. CAF replaced the originally scheduled Egyptian referee for the quarterfinal between Morocco and Cameroon with a Mauritanian referee, after Morocco formally requested the change in officials. The only other well-documented instance, ahead of Algeria and Nigeria, saw a Somali referee dropped for breaching sponsorship rules, which itself shows the body’s prioritisation order.

Daniel Nii Laryea’s performance was not far from the general standard of officiating at the tournament, though some questionable calls, such as awarding Calvin Bassey a soft yellow card and seemingly forgetting that he could also caution Moroccan players, did not help matters. But we also forget the penalty call against Nigeria that a compromised referee could easily have given, sparing us the anguish of hope for a further half-hour. The broader issue is that there needs to be greater effort to train and support referee development across the continent to avert controversies and reduce situations like this.

Some of these issues will be less prevalent in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. Morocco reaching the Final means a third successive tournament will see the hosts place on the podium. North and West Africa’s dominance in the tournament, reflected also in this year’s Final, means that such biases or permutations around the hosts are unlikely to be the case. But it does not mean that efforts should not be made to shore up some of the issues that have come up this year. For both Nigeria and CAF, AFCON 2025 objectively marks a bold new chapter for football—it now needs to be consolidated and built upon.