In 2015/2016, Gonzalo Higuaín reestablished himself as a world class striker by plundering 36 league goals for Napoli, breaking the record for the most goals scored in a single Serie A season. This feat was all the more remarkable considering Serie A’s misplaced reputation for being a defensive league and the calibre of players that precede El Pipita. Without a doubt, Serie A has hosted the finest attacking talent in history, boasting the likes of El Fenomeno, Marco Van Basten, Roberto Biaggio, Michel Platini, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic in recent times, as well as Gunnar Nordahl, Guiseppe Meazza, and Omar Sivori in a bygone era.
Less than a fifth of the season left, and Higuaín has scored goals all year round, much to the chagrin of Napoli supporters, in light of his controversial summer move for a Serie A record fee. But while the sight of a slightly overweight Higuaín turning away to celebrate is a regular one, Serie A fans have been treated to a number of surprises in terms of leading goal scorers. The race to the Capocannoniere has been a fascinating one, featuring a captain whose penalty miss was cheered by his own supporters, a seemingly blind striker who can’t help but score, and a prodigal son returning from an unsuccessful sojourn in foreign lands.
Here, I look at the favourites and dark horses in the race for the 2016/2017 Serie A Golden Boot.
Andrea Belotti (25 goals, 5 assists, 105/mins per goal) – Many people will remember him as the subject of a rumoured bid by Arsenal in the most recent Winter transfer window. Moving away from the dream-world where Arsenal Football Club acquires a notable striker, Andrea Belotti looks like the real deal. A proper No.9, Belotti is a throwback to the time – as recently as the 00s – when young Italian strikers mixed it with seasoned international hitmen. It is hard not to get excited about the rooster. In the most competitive Capocannoniere field in years, he currently leads the way despite playing for the lowest ranked club out of all his main rivals. Combustible Serb Siniša Mihajlović has unlocked the attacking potential of the team – Torino have scored 63 goals so far, the 4th highest in the league. The 23-year old has been unafraid to mix it with the big boys too, notching goals against Juventus, Roma, Napoli, and three against AC Milan across all competitions. His muscular frame and ruthlessness in front of goal have earned him comparisons with the legendary Christian Vieri who boasts the second-best goal-to-game ratio for the Italian national team in the post-War era. Probably the fan favourite for the crown, Belotti can take solace in the fact that should he remain in Italy in the next few years, he will likely secure at least one Capocannoniere, like Vieri himself in 2003.
Edin Dzeko (25 goals, 5 assists, 108/mins per goal) – Edin Dzeko has never been everyone’s cup of tea but, at Manchester City, he seemed to find a niche for himself, alternating between reliable substitute and key man as City secured two Premier League titles. After his move to Roma in the summer of 2015, he looked like a stereotypical lumbering English centre-forward as he struggled to adapt to the Italian game. In his first season, a misleadingly high return of 8 goals in 31 league games earmarked with many memorable misses earned him the title Edin Cieco, that is, Edin the Blind. The story has been remarkably different this season, and a lot of the change is down to Luciano Spalletti. Spaletti has set Dzeko as the spearhead of his attack, and the rewards have been clear to see as Dzeko has scored goals for fun. In truth, his goals may prove the difference if Roma are to hold off Napoli for the automatic Champions League qualification spot. At 31 years old, this may be his only chance to clinch another Golden Boot award to go with his German award with Wolfsburg during the 2009/2010 season. With the way Roma set up, Dzeko is my marginal favourite to secure the Capocannoniere.
Mauro Icardi (24 goals, 8 assists, 116/mins per goal) – Mauro Icardi is only 24 years old, but he has been through so much that you could write a book about his life. And write a book he did. Unfortunately, his autobiography landed him in hot water with the Inter Milan fans as it included an exaggerated incident when he threatened disgruntled fans, saying, “I’ll bring 100 criminals from Argentina who’ll kill them where they stand, then we’ll see.” The ugly incident reached a climax when the Inter fans cheered Icardi’s penalty miss in their next home game. And remember, Icardi is the club captain. It is a testament to the Argentine’s nose for goal that despite the controversies that have followed him and the constant managerial changes, he keeps scoring. This season, he has added assists to his game and is surely playing well beyond Inter’s level – they may not even get into the Europa League! Icardi already has one Capocannoniere which he shared with Luca Toni in 2015 and cannot be ruled out from getting another one in what has been a topsy-turvy season, even for him. Crucially though, he is surely ripe for a big money move to a top-tier European club. With Icardi (and wife/agent Wanda) you can always expect some drama, but he has grown in spades as a leader and team player. It is worth taking a punt on this sure 20-goal-a-season striker, who for me, stands as the hottest young striking prospect in Europe.
Gonzalo Higuaín (23 goals, 2 assists, 112/mins per goal) – Given his escapades last year and after a record-breaking transfer, there is something slightly underwhelming about El Pipita’s return so far. Do not be deceived though: this Juventus team is based on the collective, and the goal-scoring burden is evenly spread. The Scudetto favourites have the players with the most number of league goals and during this record-equaling five-title streak, the single top league scorer for a season is Carlos Tevez (20). Looked at this way, it is unsurprising that Higuaín’s output is slightly diminished and even more impressive that he is competing with strikers in more attacking, lop-sided teams. Of course, the claim that he does not do it enough in big games is still sort of valid, though he did memorably score against title rivals and his former club, Napoli, on multiple occasions. His pedigree alone makes him a strong contender to secure Capocannonieri, but Juventus fans may be asking him to save his goals for the Champions League.
Dries Mertens (22 goals, 5 assists, 98/mins per goal) – Mertens’ story is a reminder that the race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong, but time and chance happen to them all. Arkadiusz Milik, signed by Napoli to replace Higuaín, hit the ground running straight away before tearing his cruciate ligament in October. With Manolo Gabbiadini struggling to fill his boots, Maurizio Sarri executed a gambit, fielding Mertens – notionally a winger – as a centre-forward. The experiment was an instant success: Mertens scored 9 goals in his first 4 games in this role, including four against Torino. The Belgian has never looked back and now boasts the best goals-per-minute ratio among his more illustrious peers. Mertens has thrived in a fluid Napoli set-up, dove-tailing nicely with Lorenzo Insigne, Jose Callejon, and the eternally underrated Marek Hamsik. It’s hard to imagine him beating more established centre-forwards to the Capocannoniere, but such has been his success as a striker in the last six months that it would be richly deserved.
Ciro Immobile (20 goals, 3 assists, 142/mins per goal) – The 2013/2014 Capocannoniere is a longshot but his resurgence this season has been heartwarming after failed spells at Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla. Now plying his trade at Lazio and learning under Simone Inzaghi – brother of Pipo Inzaghi, and a fine striker himself – Immobile is finally shaking off accusations of being a one-season wonder. Interestingly, his tale is a cautionary one for Capocannoniere frontrunner Andrea Belotti who currently plays for the same Torino side that Immobile first made his name. Immobile is one of my favourite strikers and is excelling in a vibrant Lazio team that boasts future stars in Felipe Anderson, Keita, and Milinković-Savić. Look out for them in Europe next season.
Marco Borriello (16 goals, no assists, 137/mins per goal) – Let me just put it out there: Borriello will not win the Capocannoniere this season. Indeed, the 34-year old will probably never win it. Make no mistake about it though, the journeyman striker is enjoying an Indian summer this season at Cagliari. It’s pretty much out of the blue as well. Despite playing for Roma, Milan, and Juventus, Borriello only really looked comfortable at Genoa and this is where he had his best season, plundering 19 league goals to finish behind the Juventus pair of Del Piero and Trezeguet in 2008. Incredibly, he may surpass that mark and achieve a 20+ league tally for the first time in his career. With the youth of Icardi and Belotti ripping defences apart, Borriello reminds us that sometimes, Serie A is indeed an old man’s league.